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bills vs. Titans Odds, Picks: Point Spread, Total, Player Props, Trends, Live Stream for ‘MNF’ in Week 2

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The Buffalo Bills looking to build on their cause as the best team in the NFL on Monday night in week 2, if they host Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans. This is a rematch of an incredible Monday night game that happened last year when Henry ran 143 yards and three touchdowns while Jeffery Simmons stuffed up Josh Allen on the goal line in fourth place with just 22 seconds left in the fourth quarter.

Fast forward a year and things look very different. The bills are 1-0 and the Super Bowl favorites, while the Titans no longer have them AJ Brown and come from a heavy upset loss to the New York Giants in Week 1. Tennessee may seem destined to take a step back from last year, but the Titans are a very difficult team to predict. They can lose to the New York Jets a week, then blow out the eventual Super Bowl champions on the road, just like last season. With how crazy Sunday was around the NFL, should we expect the unexpected in Buffalo tonight?

Below we’ll break down this matchup from a betting perspective and explore the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First off, here’s how to watch Monday’s matchup.

All NFL Odds are through Caesars Sportsbook.

How to watch?

Date: Monday Sept 19. | Time: 8:15 PM ET
Place: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)
TV:
ESPN | Current: fubo TV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Chances: Bills -10, O/U 47.5

Injury report

Line movement

Last Chances:

Buffalo Bills -10

The Bills opened as 7.5-point favorites on Monday, May 16. After the Titans lost in Week 1, the line reopened at BUF -9.5 last Sunday night. The next day it rose to BUF -10, where it left off.

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The choice: Bills -10. In my Week 2 picks column, I took the bills to win, but the titans to cover. It’s easy to argue for a solid road dog to cover a double-digit spread, but a few recent developments made me switch sides. On Saturday, the Titans ruled out their No. 1 cornerback Fulton due to a hamstring injury. Tennessee also ruled out Hilliard, who caught two touchdowns in Week 1.

Allen has what it takes to give these Titans defensive attacks. He has a powerful arm that can make the young corners of Tennessee look silly, and the mobility to move the chains when he thinks it’s the best option. This game was never considered a top game for me in week 2, but the bills are supposed to cover 10 points.

Top/bottom 47.5

Last Chances:

More than 47

The total opened at 52 on May 16, but began to decline shortly after. It reopened at 49.5 last Sunday night but started to fall again. It dropped to 48 on Wednesday and then to 47.5 on Friday afternoon.

The choice: more than 47.5. Both the Titans and Bills failed to make their Overs in Week 1, although Tennessee allowed the Giants to score 21 points in the second half – which is exactly the number of points Buffalo scored in the second half vs. Los Angeles Rams in the NFL season opener. I am in no way going to bet an Under in prime time with two teams that can score fouls. You may doubt the Titans’ new passing attack, but Henry is a homerun hitter who can find the end zone anywhere on the field. Tennessee hit the Over in six of its eight road games last year, which tied for second in the league. The bottom line is that I think the total has fallen too low. If this number was 52 or 53 I’d pause, but at 47.5 the slope is to the Over.

Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (more than +159, less than -224)
Passing yards: 214.5 (over -108, less than -127)
Pass attempts: 31.5 (over -127, less than -108)
Achieve completions: 20.5 (over -101, less than -135)
Longest Transient Completion: 33.5 (top -113, bottom -121)
interceptions: 0.5 (over -151, less than +110)
Rushing yards: 9.5 (over -137, less than +100)

Tannehill Over 1.5 passing touchdowns for plus money looks intriguing, but you have to remember that last year he threw two or more touchdowns in just four games. However, he did throw two scores in Week 1 vs. the Giants. Tanny’s passing yard line seems a little low, but I’d like him to make an interception at -151. Another kite I will take is Tannehill to rush at least 10 yards. He didn’t reach this line last week, but rushed for at least 17 yards in nine games in 2021. In a primetime game with the Titans as the underdogs, one read option keep for us could hit the Over. I like it.

In general, it is difficult to bet on Tannehill props. A recipe for a Titans’ upset win would probably involve Tannehill hitting the Under with most of these props, but if you’re a big fan of the Bills then Tannehill will have to broadcast it to keep up. Really, a battle of different playstyles.

Josh Allen props

Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -189, Under +136)
Passing yards: 262.5 (over -117, less than -117)
Pass attempts: 32.5 (over -121, less than -113)
Achieve completions: 22.5 (over -137, less than +100)
Longest Transient Completion: 36.5 (over -121, less than -113)
interceptions: 0.5 (over +120, less than -166)
Rushing yards: 40.5 (over -117, less than -117)

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Go ahead and take the Over on Allen’s touchdown passes. If you don’t like laying -189, throw it in a parlay of the same game. Love the Over on passing yards here. That’s a landline. I would stay away from the passing attempts and completion numbers, although I have a slight lean towards the Under on attempts. I don’t see any value in Allen’s intercept number, but the Over on rushing yards is intriguing. Allen led the Bills with 56 rushing yards in Week 1. Tennessee is sure to pressure him, but that pressure will come from domestically. I guarantee that Allen will take that escape route out a few times tonight.

Player props

Stefan Diggs longest reception: more than 23.5 (-117). Diggs will be released at least once against Tennessee’s backup corners. He caught a 53-yard pass against the Rams last week.

Treylon Burks receiving yards: over 26.5 (+100). The Titans’ first round has had a bizarre start to his NFL career, but he caught three passes for 55 yards in Week 1 despite only playing 22 offensive snaps. I think he can exceed this number.

Tyler Bas extra points gained: more than 2.5 (-169). Juicy, but might be a nice addition to the same game when you’re high on Buffalo. Bass made all four extra points last week and at least three extra points in 11 of 17 games last year.

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