College football predictions, picks, odds: Kansas State over Oklahoma between value games in week 4


Conference play is finally upon us as the vast majority of leagues deliver quality match-ups in week 4. Instead of rummaging through the dregs of mismatched conference games, this week finally gives us some battles between programs that know each other well. That’s where real value can be found.

Finding value takes many forms for keen gamblers. Finding an underdog with the potential to win and land an inflated moneyline win is a gold standard. However, identifying teams that can provide late cover or a favorite that can stretch a lead far beyond the line can also lead to wins. When the time is right, we can even delve into over/under plays with upside.

Our Week 4 list features a few teams hoping to make it to the College Football Playoff and take on tough rivals. It also features two of the five worst teams in college football this season. Everything is on the table – let’s get to it.

Lines are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. All times East.

When: Thursday, 7.30 pm | Where: Center Parc Stadium — Atlanta, Georgia

Featured game | Georgia State Panthers vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Georgia State’s first two losses to South Carolina and North Carolina weren’t worth saving the ship. Going home to Charlotte at one point last week is a different story. Early return to Coastal Carolina was shaky, but this is still one of the most explosive offenses in college football behind quarterback Grayson McCall. This line shouldn’t be within a touchdown, and it feels like Vegas modellers are overthinking themselves. Pick: Coastal Carolina -2 (-110)

When: Saturday, 12.00 o’clock | Where: Truist Field — Winston-Salem, North Carolina

Clemson has one of the best defenses in all of college football… and an attack that’s miles away from coming up with anything. The Tigers scored no more than 14 points in the first half against Louisiana Tech and Georgia Tech before taking the win. The Demon Deacons won’t make it so easy for you. While Wake Forest’s defenses are a subpar unit, Clemson and Wake Forest would both need to get 30 points to cover this line. Admittedly, Clemson scored 48 points against Wake Forest at home last season, but this offense is an absolute mess. Dial: under 55.5 (-110)

When: Saturday, 5:30 PM | Where: Memorial Stadium — Berkeley, California

Featured game | California Golden Bears vs. Arizona Wildcats

Arizona has quietly emerged as one of the most improved teams in college football. The Wildcats crushed San Diego State, beating FCS powerhouse North Dakota State by great effort. Quarterback Jayden de Laura was a revelation and 245 of his 748 passing yards have gone to transfer receiver Jacob Cowing. Cal’s defense remains terrifying, but early returns have been mixed. A six-point win over UNLV isn’t going to impress and it doesn’t exactly feel right to give Notre Dame its first win. There is enough value to think that the Wildcats could cause a shock. Choose: Arizona ML (+135)

When: Saturday, 8 p.m. | Where: Memorial Stadium — Norman, Oklahoma

Featured game | Oklahoma Sooners vs. Kansas State Wildcats

Maybe Oklahoma is as good as it looked in a Nebraska takeout. Maybe Kansas State really is as bad as it looked in an embarrassing display against Tulane and not the Big 12 contender we envisioned at the start of the year. Anyway, 4-to-1 odds are more than enough to make that gamble. The Wildcats have beaten Oklahoma in two of the past three seasons, outplaying the Sooners to seven points in the other showing. More importantly, the Kansas State offensive line will be much better prepared for the Oklahoma front than Nebraska’s porous unit. It’s worth the chance. Choice: Kansas State ML (+400)

When: Saturday, 8 p.m. | Where: Aggie Memorial Stadium — Las Cruces, New Mexico

This matchup features the No. 2 and No. 4 teams in the country – as long as you talk about the Under 25 rankings. Both Hawaii and New Mexico state are legit in the fight for the bottom spot in the entire FBS after making off-season coaching changes and from the start. However, the scoreless Aggies still get a five-point lead over Hawaii at home. Moving from Power Five opponents and Western Kentucky to Duquesne brought some confidence, so ride with the Rainbow Warriors. Select: Hawaii +5 (-110)

Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 4, and which Top 25 favorite will go down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a tried-and-true computer model that’s brought in more than $3,300 in profits in the past six seasons — and find out.