The Six Pack: Florida vs. Tennessee, Texas A&M vs. Arkansas Among Week 4’s Top School Soccer Picks


Last week was the week The Six Pack had been waiting for. After a rough start to the season, The Six Pack went 5-1 last week, including a hit on its upset pick with Vanderbilt to bring in 4.05 units and bring us positive for the season.

Now we just have to stay there. Early season betting is tough, but Trusting the Process paid off.

What’s even better than last week’s performance is that I’m more confident in this week’s picks – and I felt pretty good about last week. There was a lot of value to be found, and it’s still there as we head into the weekend. The market still hasn’t quite caught on with some teams and the week 1 overreactions are still naturally corrective. So let’s go there. All opportunities through Caesars Sportsbook.

Games of the week

Featured game | Tennessee Volunteers vs Florida Gators

No. 20 Florida at No. 11 Tennessee: Remember when Florida beat Utah at home to start the season and suddenly Anthony Richardson was a Heisman candidate? People said Richardson was a mix of Cam Newton and Vince Young, which would be an incredible combination – if true – but we haven’t heard much of those comparisons in the past two weeks. Let it be a lesson to all of us not to take everything we see in the first week of a new season too seriously. Strange things happen. Richardson is a talented player, but he is young, inexperienced and still has a lot to learn.

As for this game, although Florida has been the dominant side in this rivalry for a while (it has five straight wins and 25 out of 32 encounters dating back to the beginning of the Steve Spurrier era in Gainesville), it won’t be Saturday. . Although I was hesitant to name Tennessee the second best team in the SEC East during the off-season because of its defense, it looked like the second best team. While I’m not ready to say that the team’s defensive issues have been resolved, they have certainly improved. With a violation of this potent, that could be enough.

However, Florida’s defense was solid and should have slowed the Vols down a bit – enough to keep it below the total anyway. Tennessee 35, Florida 24 | Below 62.5

No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 23 Texas A&M: Yeah, I’m not going to bet on the Aggies anytime soon. The offense is… well… offensive. As I wrote last week when we underscored (and cashed easily) in Texas A&M’s game against Miami, more people would find that A&M’s wasn’t much better if it weren’t for Iowa’s comically bad offense. The Aggies are ranked 105th in points per ride (1.72) nationally, 104th in pass rate (37.3%) and 85th in EPA/play (-0.03). It’s not that Coach Jimbo Fisher doesn’t know how to coordinate a violation. It’s that his offense is way too complicated for the university, where players are only given so much time to “study.” There’s a reason so many school infractions are simplified, but Fisher refuses to simplify his infraction or give the reins to anyone else. You see the result.

You know who makes a simple foul, one that scores a lot of points and is explosive? Arkansas. Now Arkansas’ pass defense is suspect, but that’s partly by design (there’s a lot of bending-but-not-breaking). I’m not worried about Texas A&M, which can’t pass efficiently against anyone. I’ll take the points, but if you want to take Arkansas straight ahead, I won’t try to talk you into it. Arkansas 24, Texas A&M 23 | Arkansas +2

End of the week

Featured game | Michigan Wolverines vs. Maryland Terrapins

Maryland at No. 4 Michigan: There is an easy way to approach Maryland, which has a 3-0 start and has outplayed the opponents 121-58. When Maryland plays against a team it should beat, it will beat that team far more often than not. It will even stunt if given the chance. However, when Maryland plays a better team, it gets obliterated. In five games against Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State and Michigan last season, the Terps went 0-5 and scored 247-84. Michigan defeated it 59-18.

In fact, Michigan has won the last six meetings with a score of 261-59. That’s an average margin of 33.7 points per game. While the Wolverines haven’t been tested yet, I don’t think Maryland will be much of a test either. Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa still takes way too many chances with the ball, and he gets away with it against average defenses. However, Michigan’s defense is not average. It will put pressure on him, he will panic and he will throw it at the Wolverines. I’ve seen it way too many times to expect it to be any different this week. Michigan 41, Maryland 13 | Michigan -16.5

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Bottom of the week

Iowa at Rutgers: It’s disgusting, isn’t it? We have a total of 34.5, and my first reaction was that it is too high. Then I thought about it a little longer, and it still seemed too high, so we’re taking the under in a game that may have more points than points. While the overall numbers aren’t terrible for the Rutgers attack, most of the damage was done in a 66-7 win over Wagner. In two games against FBS opponents, it scored 38 points, averaging 1.29 points per drive (107th) and a 34.6% success rate (107th). For reference, the terrible, very bad, no good Iowa attack is one spot ahead in both categories versus FBS teams.

On the other hand, the defense is good. Iowa’s defense remains one of the best in the country and will have no trouble against a Rutgers anemia. Rutgers’ defense is in the top 25 nationally of the stats I care about most (#TrustTheProcess), so it’s hard to believe the Iowa attack itself will do much. As always with Iowa, we could fall prey to a special team miscue or bunch of Rutgers turnovers leading to short fields, but even then it might not matter. Iowa 20, Rutgers 10 | Below 34.5

Jayhawks of the week

Featured game | Kansas Jayhawks vs. Duke Blue Devils

Duke in Kansas: While I don’t make them my slot of the week, I don’t let my Jayhawks down. They’re not a lock because I’m more confident in Michigan versus Maryland, but the market still underestimates the Jayhawks. It’s definitely been corrected a bit after road victories against West Virginia and Houston, but it’s overestimating Duke a bit here.

Like Kansas, Duke starts surprisingly 3-0. The main difference is that Kansas has had some tough road wins. Duke, on the other hand, has played against what are arguably two of the worst FBS teams in the country (Temple and Northwestern) and an FCS opponent in North Carolina A&T. The Blue Devils defense has never seen anything like this attack in Kansas. I don’t think the Blue Devils have the talent to slow down a real elite attack in Kansas. Let’s ride this Jayhawks wave until we crash on the stony shore. Kansas 37, Duke 27 | Kansas -7.5

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Anger of the week

Featured game | California Golden Bears vs. Arizona Wildcats

Arizona in Calo: I’ve been in Kansas for three weeks in a row on this column. Last week I told you to take Vanderbilt on the money line against Northern Illinois. I felt the market for both programs was way too low heading into the season. You know the Kansas bets, but I also grabbed Vanderbilt’s season-long win tally of over 2.5, and it’s already cashed in. I also got the Arizona Over 2.5 wins before the year as Arizona’s numbers last season were much better than the record indicated. Well, the Wildcats head to Berkeley this week with a 2-1 record and a chance to exceed their October total, as do Kansas and Vanderbilt.

And there’s a good chance they’ll get the job done — a better chance than the price here indicates, anyway. I have this game as little more than a coin flip (slight slope to Cal). The Bears struggle to complete drives, and as a result they struggle to score points. The Arizona offense is not efficient and falls into a rut, but the overall success rate indicates improved performance to come. It’s also much stronger in the red zone, which could be the difference in what should be a close game. Arizona 24, Cal 20 | Arizona (+135)

Games of the week




End of the week








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